Tuesday, April 28, 2009
You have a lot of advice in your new book for your daughters, on money, education, travel, dating. Do you have any advice for boys?
Well, my first advice to my daughters was to be careful of boys, and to be leery of boys, having been a boy myself. For the most part my advice for the boys is the same — be careful of girls. Be careful of people of the other sex. Be careful of wild promises. Just like on Wall Street.
Let’s talk about Wall Street. Is there anything the government should be doing to fix the economic crisis?
No, the government can’t fix the crisis. Everything the government’s tried for the past two years has been wrong. That’s why the crisis continues. The idea that you can solve a problem of too much debt and too much consumption with more debt and more consumption is ludicrous on its face. What they should have done is just let everybody go bankrupt, let the bankruptcy courts reorganize everything. The Japanese tried this approach of propping up zombie banks and zombie companies; it did not work. And it’s not going to work in America either.
Do you think there’s anything to the argument that it’s just politically impossible to let all these companies go down? That it’d throw so many people out of work that it’d cause social turmoil?
They’ll be out of work anyway, you know? In a way I don’t understand the logic. Whatever they’re doing, it’s not saving the day. We have the highest unemployment we’ve had in the U.S. in a few decades and it’s getting worse.
You mention a few times the famous quote attributed to Mark Twain, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” What period are we rhyming with now? Is this an echo of the Great Depression or is there something else that would be more apt?
The Great Depression started out with a stock market bubble that burst in 1929, as the world was going into a nice recession. Then the government started making mistakes. They passed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, they raised taxes, they became very protectionist, and the next thing you know we had the Great Depression. In Europe they made solvent banks take over insolvent banks with the result that both [kinds of] banks failed. This has all been done before. History is — I don’t like saying it, but it’s repeating itself. Governments are making the same old mistakes.
The market is up from its lows and the most recent unemployment numbers are slightly better; what do you say to people who say, ‘Well, we’re nearing bottom on this’?
I think we’ve seen a bottom. I don’t think we’ve seen the bottom. If America’s determining its policy on whether the stock market is up for a month, America’s in worse shape than I’d realized. We could have a rally for who knows, six months, a year, we could have a rally for a while after having had the kind of collapse we did. In the ’30s the stock market rallied frequently. But in the end it was still the Great Depression.
You normally say that you believe commodities are a better bet, but do you think now with asset prices pushed so far down that it’s a good time to start looking for undervalued stocks?
Sure. Some companies are going to be screaming “buy” these days. In the 1930s there were people who made fortunes. If you’re willing and able to do the homework I’m sure you’ll find some great opportunities. But the only area of the world economy I know of where the fundamentals are improving are commodities. Many farmers cannot get loans for fertilizer now. The inventories of food are the lowest they’ve been in decades. Nobody can get a loan to open a mine, so it’s going to be at least 15 years before you’re going to see any new mines opening up. The world’s known oil reserves are in decline. All of what’s going on in the world is improving the supply fundamentals for commodities. And I don’t see that that’s true anywhere else. If the world economy is going to improve, commodities are going to be the best place to be; if the world economy doesn’t improve, commodities are going to be the best place to be.
China has $2 trillion in U.S. debt. Do you think at some point these countries are just gong to say, “We’re done? We’re not going to keep underwriting your debt?” If so, what happens then?
It’s not just China. It’s our own people who are starting to say, “Why would I buy something that’s being printed as fast as you possibly can print it, why would I buy something where debts are getting higher and higher by the hour, and interest rates are at historic lows?” Let’s not pick on the Chinese here.
The reason I focused on China is you’ve said that the 21st century is going to be the Chinese century; you’re teaching your daughters Mandarin.
Yes, well, we can pick on China, but remember, the largest creditor nations in the world are in Asia now — it’s China, it’s Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore — all the money is here. Even if the Chinese continue to buy, somebody’s going to stop buying that stuff. If I was the Chinese I wouldn’t buy it. I’m waiting to sell it short at the right time.
Do you think this crisis is just going to solidify the advantages of China and these other Asian and Southeast Asian economies?
Well, again, throughout history, the center of the world has shifted to where the capital is, where the assets are. You don’t see any period in history where things are shifting to the debtors, and America’s the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Unless something’s different this time, unless the world’s changed very very dramatically, the center of the influence, the center of power, the center of the earth, the center of the globe, is going to be shifting towards Asia, because that’s where all the money is. Have you ever heard of anybody saying, “Let’s go to where all of the debtors are”? It just doesn’t happen that way.
Source Time Magazine
Monday, April 27, 2009
I am not buying U.S. companies mainly because I think we may have seen a bottom but I don't think we have seen the bottom. I am skeptical about the rally, the world economy for the next year or two or three.
But if stocks go down, I can make money with commodities. In the 1970s, commodities went through the roof even though stocks were a disaster. In the 1930s, commodities rallied first and went up the most long before stocks pulled it together.
Jim Rogers is the author of Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip and Investment Biker: On the Road with Jim Rogers. He is an investor who has been chronicled in Jon Train’s Money Masters of Our Time, Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards, and other books. He has been frequently featured in Time, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Barron’s, Forbes, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, and most publications dealing with the economy or finance. He has also appeared as a regular commentator and columnist in various media and has been a visiting professor at Columbia University.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
From Bloomberg : Jim Rogers to his daughter beware of boys ?!?!:
The Whole Comference for those who asked for it is here :
Friday, April 24, 2009
Rogers remains bearish on Western world equities generally, and says he is not participating in the market rallies of Spring 2009, which he expects to be short-lived, with the market going on to reach new lows.
He has started to invest again in China, particularly in sectors dependent on locally-driven growth, such as agriculture, water treatment, and infrastructure, rather than businesses focused on exports to a declining Western world.
Commodities are still his main focus, but is less enthusiastic about gold (although he hasn't said that he sold any) due to fears that the IMF is about to flood the market.
He continues to be bearish on the dollar, sterling, and euro, relative to the yen, renminbi and Swiss franc.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Britain's national debt will reach £1.4 trillion - equivalent to almost 80 per cent of the country's economy - after Alistair Darling announced plans to borrow another £700 billion over the next five years.
The unprecedented borrowing programme sparked warnings that a generation of British workers face higher taxes to pay off the debt, and raised doubts about international investors' willingness to go on lending to the UK.
The final figures could be even higher, since Mr Darling based his borrowing plans on an assumption that the UK economy will start to grow again later this year and rebound sharply by 2011.
And as for metals, nobody can get a loan to open a mine as you know. Who is going to give you money to open a zinc mine? It takes at least 10 years to open a mine so it's going to be 15 or 20 years before we see new mines come on. Nobody has been opening mines for 30 years and they are not going to. And in the meantime reserves are declining.
As for oil, the International Energy Agency came out recently with a study showing that oil reserves worldwide were declining at the rate of 6% or 7% a year.
That does not mean that if suddenly the U.S. goes bankrupt that everything won't collapse in price. But I would rather be in commodities because it's the only thing I know where the fundamentals are improving. They are not improving for Citibank or General Motors but the supply situation in commodities is such that when demand comes back, then commodities are going to be the best place to be in my view.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers has three hot tips for investors: “Question everything, never follow the crowd, and beware of boys!”
Rogers is the bow-tied “adventure capitalist” who co- founded Quantum Fund with George Soros. He made enough money to retire at 37, then toured the globe on a motorcycle.
Now 66, Rogers is exploring the uncharted territory of fatherhood for the first time. In “A Gift to My Children,” he distills the lessons of his investing life into an open letter to his daughters Happy (born in 2003) and Baby Bee (who joined the family last year). The result is a zippy if uneven booklet of fatherly advice from a man who long scoffed at parenthood.
The oldest of five boys, Rogers spent a lot of time looking after his siblings and saw what a burden it was, he says. He only changed his mind about kids, it seems, after meeting a Southern belle named Paige Parker and taking her on another jaunt around the globe, this time in a four-wheel-drive Mercedes-Benz.
Funny how a young bride can change a guy.
Rogers’s helpful hints on how to lead a rich life -- in both senses of the adjective -- run from the predictable (be true to yourself) to the passionate (go see the world!) to the downright goofy (use the toilet before setting out on a long drive). The diaper set does make you focus on human plumbing.
Underpinning these sometimes corny pointers is the straight talk of a man who grew up in rural Alabama, made his first money collecting empty soda bottles at a local baseball field and emerged from Yale and Oxford with his folksy demeanor intact.
Snakes and Diamonds
Unlike Rogers’s previous books, this volume doesn’t dwell on his travel exploits or specific investing advice, though he throws in snatches of both. He recalls trips through war zones in Angola and Sudan, the time he was served snake for dinner (butchered before his eyes, yuck), and the day he bought a diamond from smugglers in Namibia. They said it was worth $70,000; he haggled the price down to $500. The gem turned out to be a glass bead. So much for all the years he has advised people “to invest only in what they know,” he says.
Much of Rogers’s advice will be familiar to anyone who wants to get ahead. Be a self-starter, think for yourself and pursue something you’re passionate about. Do your own research and pay attention to details, however trivial they seem.
This sounds easy, but isn’t. His idea of due diligence involves reading every financial statement a company publishes, including the notes. Next step: Verify the statements.
“Talk to customers, suppliers, competitors and anyone else who might affect the company,” he says.
His plans for his daughters are so ambitious that I’m not sure whether to envy or pity them. They should learn philosophy, history and languages -- yet temper this education with travel aimed at seeing how different people live. Rogers has already started their education by moving his family to Singapore, where a Chinese governess talks to the girls in Mandarin. (About the only Chinese he knows is “cold beer,” he jokes.)
Travel guides your investments, he says: His time in Russia, for example, has convinced him that an investor can profit there “only if he’s in cahoots with the criminal element.” This is one reason he’s so bullish on commodities.
“There is simply no way that we can expect an increased supply of raw materials from there anytime soon,” he writes.
Much of his advice will resonate with parents. His daughters shouldn’t get married until they are at least 28 and should avoid having drinks -- let alone dinner -- alone with the boss. They should also heed this sound principle for dealing with boys: “They need you more than you need them.”
As a father, I couldn’t agree more.
“A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing” is from Random House in the U.S. (85 pages, $16) and from Wiley in Europe (112 pages, 11.99 pounds, 14.40 euros).
(James Pressley writes for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Jim Rogers about New Book: “A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing” 20 Apr 2009
Jim Rogers, the legendary American investor, says commodities are still the best place to remain invested in currently.
New Book: “A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing”
Jim Rogers has three hot tips for investors: “Question everything, never follow the crowd, and beware of boys!”
20 Apr 2009 :
Bloomberg printed an article about Jim`s latest book, “A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing”:
"Much of Rogers’s advice will be familiar to anyone who wants to get ahead. Be a self-starter, think for yourself and pursue something you’re passionate about. Do your own research and pay attention to details, however trivial they seem.
This sounds easy, but isn’t. His idea of due diligence involves reading every financial statement a company publishes, including the notes. Next step: Verify the statements.
“Talk to customers, suppliers, competitors and anyone else who might affect the company,” he says.
His plans for his daughters are so ambitious that I’m not sure whether to envy or pity them. They should learn philosophy, history and languages -- yet temper this education with travel aimed at seeing how different people live. Rogers has already started their education by moving his family to Singapore, where a Chinese governess talks to the girls in Mandarin."
Monday, April 20, 2009
Jim Rogers Isn't Buying a U.S. Stock Recovery
MONDAY, APRIL 20, 2009 By John Kimelman
WELL, BANK EXECUTIVES and investors can breathe a sigh of relief: Jim Rogers has covered the short positions on financial stocks he put in place ahead of last year's massive meltdown.
But just because this influential investor isn't betting that big banks will fall much further doesn't mean he's confident they will stage a lasting rally either. He feels similarly about U.S. stocks in general.
"I am skeptical about the rally, and the world economy for the next year or two or three," he says. "But if stocks go down, I can make money with commodities."
Rogers, now 66, gained fame as George Soros’ hedge-fund partner in the 1970s and 1980s. After retiring from professional money manager in his late 30s, the Alabama native tooled around Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America visiting emerging markets, one by one. His resulting book, Investment Biker, helped to popularize emerging market investing at the outset of a bull market for the sector.
He also helped to popularize commodity investing, which for decades was the province of niche investors. In the 1990s, he developed commodity indexes based on futures contracts that in recent years have been turned into exchange-traded funds available to all investors. His 2004 book, Hot Commodities, came ahead of a surge prices for energy, metals, and agriculture.
Since its inception in July 1998, the Rogers International Commodities Index has gained 158%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 23%. And that gain for the commodities index comes despite the fact that it’s lost more than half of its value since last July. At these levels, Rogers has been a buyer.
These days, Rogers, now 66, is sticking close to home in Singapore with his wife, Paige Parker, and two small daughters. He’s about to release his latest book, A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing (Random House), in which he encourages other people’s children to travel widely and learn Mandarin so they can reap the rewards of China’s economic boom.
Recently, Rogers talked to Barrons.com by phone from his Singapore home.
Q: When you last did a lengthy interview with Barron’s magazine a year ago (see “Light Years Ahead of the Crowd,” April 14, 2008) you were lightening up on emerging markets investments. Well, you called that one right. But now that many of those markets have fallen from their highs of recent years, are you more optimistic?
A: No. I’ve sold all emerging markets stock except the ones in China. I bought more Chinese shares in October and November during the panic, but I have not bought China or any other stock markets including the U.S. since then. I’m not buying anything in China right now because the Chinese market ran up maybe 50% since last November. It’s been the strongest market in the world in the past six months and I don’t like jumping into something that has been that run up. Still, I’m not thinking of selling these stocks either. I think if it goes down I’ll buy more. I think you will find that it’s the single strongest market in the world since last fall.
Q: In your latest book, you talk of China as the great investment opportunity of the 21st century, just as the U.S. was in the 20th century. What percentage of a typical American investor’s portfolio should be in China?
A: If they can’t even find China on a map, I don’t think they should have anything in China. They should know something about China before they invest there. If they have the same convictions that I do then they should probably have a lot. If you asked me that question in 1909 about the U.S. stock market, I would have said to put 100% of your money in the U.S.
Q: Might it make sense to have a greater weighting in a diversified mix of Chinese stocks than in U.S. stocks?
A: Well yes. Just as in 1909, if you were German or Chinese, you should have had the largest percentage of your money in the United States. The idea of investing is to make money, not to have some sort of political agenda.
Q: That being said, you currently think Chinese stocks are bid-up now, so you’re not buying at these levels. So what have you been buying lately?
A: I have been buying commodities through the Rogers commodity indexes I developed because my lawyer won’t let me buy individual commodities. I recently bought the all four Rogers indexes – the Elements Rogers International Commodities Index (ticker:RJI) as well as the three specialty indexes, the International Metals (RJZ), the International Energy (RJN), and the International Agriculture (RJA.) That’s how I invest in commodities and that’s what I bought last week. I have been buying these shares since last fall and up to last week.
Q: Though you got out of emerging markets last year before they fell hard, you seemed be caught by surprise by the fall-off in commodity prices last year. Is that right?
A: Yes, I was surprised. I did not expect commodities to go down that much and in retrospect it was a period of forced liquidation for many (professional) investors. You know AIG went bankrupt, which was huge in commodities. Lehman Brothers was big in commodities.
But at least I was shorting the investment banks at the time and other financials such as Citigroup and Fannie Mae. So I was hedged by being long commodities and short the other things such as financials and as you know most of them were down from 80% to 100%, so I more than made up on my shorts than I lost on my longs. So thank God for (the stock decline in) Citigroup and thank God (for the decline) in Fannie Mae.
Q: Now despite the recent stock-market rally that started in March, many U.S. stocks are trading well off their 2007 highs. How come you see no value to this market?
A: I am not buying U.S. companies mainly because I think we may have seen a bottom but I don’t think we have seen the bottom. I am skeptical about the rally, the world economy for the next year or two or three. But if stocks go down, I can make money with commodities. In the 1970s, commodities went through the roof even though stocks were a disaster. In the 1930s, commodities rallied first and went up the most long before stocks pulled it together.
Q: Can you summarize the reasons for your bullishness about commodities?
A: It depends on the supply and demand. And we have had a dearth of supply. Nobody has invested in productive capacity for 25 or 30 years now. The inventories of food are the lowest they have been in 50 years and you have a shortage of farmers even right now because most farmers are old men because it has been such a horrible business for 30 years. And as for metals, nobody can get a loan to open a mine as you know. Who is going to give you money to open a zinc mine? It takes at least 10 years to open a mine so it’s going to be 15 or 20 years before we see new mines come on. Nobody has been opening mines for 30 years and they are not going to. And in the meantime reserves are declining. As for oil, the International Energy Agency came out recently with a study showing that oil reserves worldwide were declining at the rate of 6% or 7% a year.
That does not mean that if suddenly the U.S. goes bankrupt that everything won’t collapse in price. But I would rather be in commodities because it’s the only thing I know where the fundamentals are improving. They are not improving for Citibank or General Motors but the supply situation in commodities is such that when demand comes back, then commodities are going to be the best place to be in my view.
Q: What do you think of bonds?
A: I am anticipating shorting bonds — the U.S. long bond. It’s about the only real bubble around that I can see right now — other than the U.S. dollar. I am not shorting bonds at this moment because I’ve shorted plenty of bubbles in my day, and I have learned that you better wait because they go up higher than any rational person can anticipate. But my plan is to short the long bond in the U.S. sometime in the foreseeable future.
Q: I’ve read that you think the penchant of the last two presidential administrations for bailing out failing U.S. companies is a big mistake and will contribute to prolonging this recession. You argue that it’s best to let these companies all go bankrupt. How bad can the economy get?
A: Yes, politicians are making mistakes. In Japan, the problem has lasted for 19 years. I hope that it doesn’t last 19 years in the U.S. The approach that works is to let them (U.S. banks and automakers) collapse and clean out the system. The idea that phony accounting is the solution (through changes in mark-to-market rules) is ludicrous. And the idea that a debt problem and an excessive spending problem can be cured with more debt and more spending is ludicrous.
It’s laughable on its face, but politicians think they’ve got to do something. Unfortunately, they are doing the wrong things and they are going to make it worse.
Q: Thanks for your time.
Friday, April 17, 2009
Jim Rogers Business Week Interview-How He’s Investing After the Crisis
Source : Newsweek
Veteran investor and world traveler Jim Rogers’ new book, A Gift to My Children: A Father’s Lessons for Life and Investing, will be published by Random House on Apr. 28. BusinessWeek investing reporter David Bogoslaw spoke by telephone with Rogers, who now lives in Singapore with his wife and two young daughters (ages five and one). Here’s what he had to say about investing, the financial crisis, and lessons learned.
n your book, you advise people to thoroughly educate themselves about a subject before they ask for advice from reputed experts so that they can truly evaluate the worth of the advice. How practical is that for investors who aren’t professionals like yourself?
The people you’re describing should not be investing at all, unless they invest in things they know a lot about. If you’re an auto mechanic, you’ll know much more about your field than anyone on Wall Street ever will. You’ll know when new products or processes are coming out. Those people can get extremely rich by just staying with what they know. It could be products that go into cars, like tire companies, or glass companies, rather than [only] auto companies. They shouldn’t try to compete with Warren Buffett.
So you reject the advice about diversified portfolios?
Diversification is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn’t get sued [for making bad investment choices for clients]. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates didn’t diversify. The way to get rich is to put your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully. And make sure you have the right basket.
You can go broke diversifying. Ask anyone who’s diversified in the last three years. They’ve lost money. Nonprofessionals are always jumping around, thinking they have to do something. If they have a big success, they think they need another one right away. That’s when hubris sets in at its worst. That’s when people really should go to the beach. It happens to me too.
You believe there is a need for more restrained spending and a higher savings/investing rate in the U.S.—closer to what you observed in China two decades ago. But economists warn that if everyone opts for higher savings at the same time, it will kill consumer spending completely and hamper economic recovery.
You’ll never see America save one-third of its annual income [the way the Chinese once did]. Even Japan is down to a 15% savings rate. America should increase its savings rate. Thirty years ago, America was saving 9% or 10% of its income.
The reason we’re having this crisis is everyone borrowed too much. The idea that you can solve a period of horrible borrowing and spending with more borrowing and spending is not going to work. We’ve had the worst credit excesses in world history, mainly in the U.S. You can’t end a problem like that with no pain. Somebody’s got to suffer.
You’ve been very vocal in criticizing the government policy responses to the financial crisis. Doesn’t the Lehman example show how much harm would have been done if the government had allowed other big financial institutions to fail?
It would be better to let some of them fail now, rather than wait for six or eight of them to happen all at once. The system can recover from bankruptcies. After Lehman went down, the stock market didn’t really collapse right away. It happened a month later, but people started blaming it on Lehman in hindsight. We’ve got to have some pain. Even if AIG (AIG) and Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) and Lehman all went bankrupt, it cleans out the system.
South Korea went through this in the late 1990s. They didn’t have anyone to bail them out, and they had to go through the pain. Sweden did it in the early 1990s, Mexico did it, Russia did it. The list goes on and on. Competent people take over the assets from incompetent people and rebuild from a solid base.
You’ve spoken a lot about the 21st century belonging to China and the investment opportunities there. As the Chinese middle class grows, do you expect a big change in Chinese savings habits as they become more able to afford consumer goods?
Look at Japan’s and Korea’s extremely high savings rates. Those have come down as those countries have become more prosperous. China is developing [social] safety nets now. When you have safety nets, there’s less reason to have very high savings. That will happen in China as well.
China is maybe one fifth the size of Europe’s economy. China can’t save the world, no matter what they do. They are investing in their own economy and have huge reserves and huge savings, The World Bank has predicted that in 2020, China will be the world’s largest economy. But the World Bank has never been right about anything. It could well happen in the next 10 or 20 years, but on a per capita basis probably not within my lifetime, unless the U.S. really collapses and China really booms.
Do you think the up cycle for commodities has farther to run?
If history is any guide, we have further to go. The only sector of the world economy where the fundamentals are getting better is commodities. Farmers can’t get loans for fertilizers [which is constraining crop supply]. It takes 10 years to open a new mine. Stocks peaked in October 2007 and commodities kept going up until July 2008.
If the world economy is going to revive, commodities are going to lead it back up. If the world economy is not going to revive, commodities are still the place to be—especially with governments printing so much money. Look at the 1970s. The world economy was in the tank, but commodities did very well. We have supply constraints. Oil production is declining.
How are you investing in commodities?
I use my indexes [he created the Rogers International Commodity Index in 1998] because my lawyers won’t allow me to buy individual commodities because I’m always talking about them in public. Most of my indexed products use futures, Ultimately, you’ll be buying futures, even if you buy an ETF or ETN.
Your favorites are agricultural commodities?
The prices historically are still very depressed, compared with most other commodities. I bought all commodities recently, but I probably bought more agriculture than anything else.
Can you share an example of an investing insight your experience on the ground in foreign countries has given you that most economists and top-down strategists miss?
Crossing into Botswana by motorcycle, there was no hassle from guards at the border. It was perfectly efficient and straightforward. I filled out forms and nobody asked me for bribes. In the country there was no black market for the local currency. There were real roads and real hotels and stores with real products in them. When I got to the capital, there were real traffic lights and office buildings. I did more homework and found that Botswana had a huge trade surplus and a balanced budget, compared with many other countries. There was a democracy where they have elections and a stock market. It’s been one of the greatest stock markets in the world for the past 20 years.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Monday, April 13, 2009
Part 1 of 3 :
Part 2 of 3:
Part 3 of 3 :
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Jim Rogers, the legendary American investor, financial commentator and, along with George Soros, founder of the Quantum Fund, is the ultimate commodities bull. More than 10 years ago, he started the Rogers International Commodities Index, and in 2005 he wrote “Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World’s Best Market.” Below, he explains to NEWSWEEK’s Rana Foroohar why oil is still black gold.
Foroohar: Inflation-adjusted, oil is the same price that it was in 1976, and in 1870. So why are you still a bull?
Rogers: It doesn’t matter. It’s also true that just about any stock you can think about is at or below where it was in the 1970s right now. So what? There are still 15- to 20-year periods when commodities, stocks and any other asset class goes up a great deal. In 1987 stocks collapsed by 40 to 80 percent. But people who were smart enough to stay in them made 1,000 percent returns in the next decade. The point is to take advantage of those periods and make some money.
What’s the fundamental case for commodities right now?
Supply is declining. There’s been 35 years of low investment in production capacity. The last lead smelter in the U.S. was built in 1969! There’s been no major oilfield discovery in 40 years. Oil is in decline. According to the International Energy Agency, oil reserves are declining significantly. At this rate, in 20 years, there will be no oil left. The only people to make money in the next 20 years will make it in commodities. It’s the only asset class where the fundamentals are improving. I mean, look at Citigroup, look at GM. Those fundamentals are not improving.
Do you see commodities as an inflation hedge?
Absolutely. This is only time in history where you’ve got every central bank in the world printing money at the same time. Consumer prices are going to go way up. The public is already getting out of paper money, which is why you’re seeing gold go up.
Does the future growth of China factor into your bullishness?
China is tiny in comparison to the U.S. economy. Anyone who thinks that the commodities story is driven by China needs to do more homework. In the 1970s, everyone was in recession, and you still had declining supply [in oil] and higher prices. Asia wasn’t even in the game then. China was run by Mao. But now, of course, there are those 3 billion people in Asia who are in the game. It’s just another factor.
Are we going to see another food-price spike sometime soon?
Definitely. I think you should move back to Indiana and marry a farmer. There are times in history when the money lenders have been in charge, and we just came through one of those periods. But it wasn’t always that way. Wall Street was a backwater in the ’40s, ’50s, ’60s and ’70s, and it will be again. Farmers are going to be the ones driving Lamborghinis, and the traders are going to have to learn to drive tractors.
What about technological advances? Another green revolution could easily drive prices down …
Sure, there’s always something that will end a bull market. But if you think we’re anywhere near that point now, think again. Even if everyone in the world decided to put a windmill on their head, it’s going to take decades for that to really change things. In the meantime, you’ve got to put your money somewhere. And as we’re already seeing, even the value of cash can be wiped out.
I guess that’s one reason the Chinese are so worried …
Well, if I were running the Chinese central bank, I’d buy oil, wheat and zinc. Which is what folks there are already doing.
How about you? Are you upping your own commodities positions right now?
As a matter of fact, I am. I never sold anything to begin with. And I’m not planning to, either.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
(Bloomberg, April 08, 2009)
Jim Rogers is a legendary investor known for his ability to predict major long term trends in several markets. Jim trades and tracks commodities, stocks, futures and interest rates all over the world. Jim has traveled extensively around the world and has written some of the best investment books available for traders. His latest book is a Bull in China, a book about the Chinese stock market.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Jim Rogers New Book :
Who is Jim Rogers ?
James "Jim" Rogers was born in Oct. 19, 1942 and grew up in Demopolis, Alabama .Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendry investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%. They ran what is considered to be one of the first truly global macro hedge funds. . In 1964 he got his first job on Wall Street at Dominick & Dominick in the summer between high school and Yale University, that's how he got his first experience with stocks and bonds. He immediately fell in love with the job. After Oxford, he returned to the U.S. and joined the army in 1970 he returned to Wall Street, working again with Dominick & Dominick. That same year he joined Arnold S. Bleichroeder, where he met George Soros, and together founded the Quantum Fund. This has opened a new era of global macrotrading and inspired numerous imitations and spin-offs. In the book "Money Masters of Our Time," Jim Rogers writes about that time "the most important thing in my life was work. I did not do anything until I had completed my work." To emphasize this professional ethic , it is good to remember that he did not made any holiday for ten years. In 1980, Jim Rogers has decided to "retire" at 37 years. Since then he has spent much of his time traveling and supporting the causes of philanthropic and taking on many high profile roles in the media. However, he continues to be an active investor and media commentator
Chossudovsky: Criminal and Complicit Mainstream Media - Michel Chossudovsky speaks in Kuala Lumpur (2012). Reflections on the criminal mainstream... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.financear...2 minutes ago
What Does it Take to Get Rich? - Check our website daily at http://www.figanews.com Why financial education, not money, is the key... <<<< This is just a summary please visit http://gold-...17 minutes ago
Italy : Critical To Implement Policies To Restart Growth - Nouriel Roubini : "With a new government in place and... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit my website : www.nourielroubini.blogspot.com for full sto...28 minutes ago
Marc Faber : In Vietnam I think you will make some Money in Shares - Marc Faber : “In Vietnam we also have some... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://www.marcfaberchannel.blogspot.com for the full story, >>>>]]58 minutes ago